WEBVTT

NOTE
Automatic transcript with corrections to names and technical terms. May contain transcription errors. Eight recorded excerpts presented in sequence; gaps between clips are not included.

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 Humming. I'm going to bring my shake. I'm still recovering less than a little bit.

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 Really excited to talk about this topic. We all have heard about quantum in the

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 news,

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 how opposed or how concerned should we be. And so I think we gather the right group

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 of people

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 who are experts in this and would love to just see where the conversation takes us.

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 So

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 I hope it's valuable for everybody here. I'd like to start with Adam. I'd love you

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 to give

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 the simplified breakdown for us, Adam. To me, and this is the case with most

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 Bitcoin upgrades,

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 the risk is rushing an upgrade more so than quantum. And like Adam said, the

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 physical

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 capabilities of the hardware, it's just not there yet. And at best, it's a few

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 years on the horizon.

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 So making hasty upgrades to Bitcoin's consensus is to me the far bigger threat. And

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 none of the

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 circles I'm in are seriously concerned about the threat of quantum in the really

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 short or medium

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 term. Alex, what do you think? Yeah, I think, first of all, I entirely agree that

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 rushing is not what

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 we want to do at all. And I also agree with what Adam said, that the path of

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 progress is somewhat

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 unpredictable. And I think in combining those two things, I think it only makes

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 sense to start

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 preparing now. And I think it's fantastic. I was actually kind of reminiscing a

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 year ago,

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 I was on a panel with Jonas from Blockstream and a few other folks. And it was the

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 only panel on

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 quantum. And now I think that the entire program is all about quantum at this

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 conference. And I

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 think that's good because I think this is a discussion that needs to be had. We don't

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 want to rush.

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 And I think, you know, we should start to have the, you know, a sensible

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 conversation now to ensure

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 that we are prepared for Q-Day whenever it happens. Because, you know, we have to

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 remember that this

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 isn't just about a conversation, right? There's a lot of research that needs to

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 happen. And there's a lot of

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 engineering work that has to happen. And then there's a lot of consensus building

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 that has to happen in

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 the community. And then all the institutions that are built on top also have to

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 integrate all this

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 for the Bitcoin network to be truly secure. So for those reasons, this is why I don't

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 really think of

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 quantum computing talk as FUD. I think this is just something that, you know, we

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 should acknowledge

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 and, you know, and talk reasonably and soberly about it. Yeah. And Bitcoiners, by

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 and large,

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 as we all know, are early adopters. And so that gives me some solace, the fact that

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 we are talking

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 about it now, whether it's a year, three years, 10 years, whatever into the future.

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 These conversations

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 need to be had. And like you said, it's becoming a bigger part of some of these

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 discussions, which

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 I find to be very bullish and gives me hope. So Rick, I'd love to hear your

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 thoughts as well.

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 I'll just say, wow, how far we've come in the conversation the last three years or

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 so when I

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 started asking people about this. I started the quantum doom clock just to kind of,

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 you know,

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 get the information out there and say, look, this is where things are right now.

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 And then tracking it

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 month by month, I send another update out. And when I started having that

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 conversation,

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 everyone was like, well, it's still 20 years away. There's all these problems and

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 kind of went through

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 the whole gamut of, you know, first they ignore you, then they start fighting you.

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 Right. So we,

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 we're now on the, they're, they're trying to start joining us now. I think there's

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 still a little bit

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 of pushback and resistance, but I will say I'm very hopeful. You know, Hunter Beast

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 at Surround

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 Systems with the BIP 360 proposal, I think it's a really good proposal. He was

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 telling me the

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 updates he's going to do to it for BIP 110 compatibility. I think the number of

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 people in

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 the room that, you know, that care about block size and how much data you need to

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 store when

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 you run a node, that matters to you a lot. So I just think that the evolution over

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 the last three

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 years has been night and day. I don't want to appear before Bitcoin is like that.

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 In fact, you know,

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 we talked to a lot of quantum computing companies and I have to say that a lot of

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 them are thinking

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 about, hmm, are, you know, how do we think about Satoshi's coins? Are they digital

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 salvage? Or,

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 you know, is this something that we could maybe use as a, as a mechanism to monetize?

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 By the way,

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 some of these folks like take INQ for example, you know, these are public companies,

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 um, you know,

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 that, that want to, you know, potentially make money ultimately for their investors.

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 So,

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 and there's not a lot of good quantum use cases business wise outside of the

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 analysis, right? So,

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 I think, um, you know, I think that, that has to be accounted for. And I, and so I

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 think that's,

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 that's an important part of it. With regards to Satoshi's coins and what to do with

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 them, um,

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 look, I think it's important to note that it's not just Satoshi's coins that are

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 vulnerable to

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 the economy. So we maintain, um, um, a product called the Bitcoin risk list, which

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 you can find

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 on project11.com. And it's just a list of all of the addresses that are under

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 exposed public keys,

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 whether by basically key reuse, um, you know, sign the same, you know, from the

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 same UTXO twice,

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 or, you know, people that have lost, you know, are they using some old address

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 types,

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 you know, but that's a total 6.8 million coins, right? And so I think I, I agree

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 with, you know,

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 so that's much more than just Satoshi's. By the way, Satoshi's coins are spread out

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 among a

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 number of UTXOs for a large period, right? So if you were a quantum attack, you

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 were kind of

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 got to grind through them, right? You're not really getting them all at once. I

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 think it's a common

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 misconception. Whereas, I mean, you actually could get, like, Binance's gold wall,

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 uh, potentially,

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 just to pick a name off the list. Um, you know, but I think this is why I think I

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 agree with the

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 sentiment that, uh, we should focus on adding in the post-quantum cryptography that

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 people can opt

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 into, right? And solve kind of that problem first, right? Because that, I think, is

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 quite involved

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 in and of itself. And I think we should defer the conversation potentially about

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 what to do with

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 the long tail of people who have died or have gone away or, you know, you know,

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 these lost coins.

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 I think, I think it should be deferred so as not to distract from the importance of

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 ultimately

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 preparing Bitcoin for the post-quantum. That's a good point. Yeah. Rick? Um, Satoshi's

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 coins are

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 probably going to be the last ones to be hacked. And, uh, a great illustration of

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 that is the movie

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 the invitation game. Has anybody here seen that? You know, you're, you're hacking,

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 you've hacked the

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 the German encryption, right? So what's the first thing you want to do? Save the

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 boats that they're

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 about to attack. But if you do that, you reveal that you have the key, right? So I

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 think it's, it's

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 probably the last piece. What I really want to do, what I would love to do is be

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 the first to get

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 there. Um, if you read up about me, that's, that's the side of the house I'm on. I'm

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 on the algorithm

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 side in terms of building, uh, useful algorithms with quantum computers. Um, the

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 other point I would,

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 I would make is, uh, there are already a bunch of products and things that you can

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 do. You can,

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 you can use like a commitment that you write with a post-quantum key to the chain

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 right now today.

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 I know David Chong has proposed that. You have the Yellow Pages approach. We've

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 released our own

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 approach, uh, that, you know, is using L2s. The L2s are using Taproot. Taproot is

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 probably the

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 worst possible thing that you want to use right now because it has a long-lived

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 public key.

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 And that makes, that means it's like the most vulnerable type of thing, especially

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 if any value

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 accrues under that public key. So there's lots of complexity here. I think that,

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 you know, in terms

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 of you want to state your claim now, you can do that now. That is one solution that's

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 available to you.

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 When these L2s, some of them already are, like Lightning Network, they're using

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 rotating keys. Some of them,

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 they're using, uh, um, uh, hash-based keys that don't get revealed until it's time.

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 If you're,

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 if you're doing those two things, you're relatively quantum resistant. Yes, there's

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 the Google Resolve

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 that says that they can break a key in under, you know, in under the block time. Um,

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 I don't think

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 that would be the first system that breaks the keys. Just, you know, take it from

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 someone who works with

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 the computers. I think probably neutral Atom is, is, you know, or ion-trapped

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 technology are probably

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 going to be first, but I, you know, it could be wrong. Yeah. And, uh, speaking of

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 some research,

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 Google put out that research for that team on, uh, the quantum computing could hack

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 the Bitcoin

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 network in like nine minutes, I think is what they said. Nine minutes, yeah. Yeah.

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 And so I'm curious,

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 uh, love to hear everyone's thoughts, starting with you, Adam. Not only everyone

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 else's opinions of

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 the most recent discussion, but then how do we separate, when some of this research

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 comes out,

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 how do we separate fact from fiction? Um, you know, everyone has differing opinions

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 and it's like,

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 how do you reach a consensus from your perspective with all this, I don't want to

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 call it fun,

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 but maybe some of it is. How do we separate real from not real? As Adam points out,

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 there's no

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 physical hardware that, that represent, you know, that is able to do these things,

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 right? That has to get

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 built. Um, and you know, of course there are teams spending a significant amount of

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 money, and by the way,

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 which money is coming from entities like governments around the world, not just the

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 U.S., but China,

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 elsewhere, to like, to build these systems, right? These governments obviously have

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 an incentive to,

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 or, you know, certain parties that are funding these teams have an incentive to

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 hide this amount of progress, right? But I do think there's this, you know, there

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 are skeptics that I,

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 I definitely understand the position of, which is that you shouldn't throw time-tested

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 cryptography

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 that has secured trillions of dollars into the bin unless we have something

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 tangible, right? That's a very

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 very understandable position. Um, and I think trying to figure out what these

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 benchmarks could be

00:08:57.360 --> 00:09:01.760
 is useful. Unfortunately, I think there's no good answer. I mean, this is, you know,

00:09:01.760 --> 00:09:05.040
 I'm talking to Craig Kidney, who's one of the Google cryptanalysis folks. I mean,

00:09:05.040 --> 00:09:05.760
 he doesn't,

00:09:05.760 --> 00:09:09.840
 he believes there's not a good benchmark you can use. All you can really do is just

00:09:09.840 --> 00:09:10.240
 look at the

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 papers, and then someday someone's going to build a machine that can do it, and

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 then we're going to be

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 there. I think that's one of the reasons why, kind of, you know, taking this back

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 to how we should

00:09:19.280 --> 00:09:22.470
 think about this as a Bitcoin community is, you know, like, it's just, we're not

00:09:22.470 --> 00:09:23.280
 going to maybe

00:09:23.280 --> 00:09:27.370
 have this strong signal. So as a result, we just need to account for that extra

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 uncertainty,

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 and therefore solely prepare earlier rather than later. Because if you over, you

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 know,

00:09:32.480 --> 00:09:35.680
 if you, if you prepare too early, the worst case is like, all right, we spent a lot

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 of work,

00:09:35.920 --> 00:09:39.080
 we yelled at each other, maybe, but like, now we're ready. Um, you know, when you

00:09:39.080 --> 00:09:40.160
 prepare too late,

00:09:40.160 --> 00:09:44.160
 I think that's where there's, you know, there's a risk of a chaotic transition.

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 And it's a great point. I'm a very strong advocate, at least in the near term, of

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 adopting a hybrid

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 approach where you keep the classical signature and then add the post quantum

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 signature. I don't

00:09:55.680 --> 00:10:00.410
 really trust the NIST process. Uh, you know, there's, we have a history there of

00:10:00.410 --> 00:10:01.680
 potential problems

00:10:01.680 --> 00:10:07.210
 that I think could be repeated. So I'm, I'm with, uh, Alex 100% there. Um, the

00:10:07.210 --> 00:10:08.560
 other thing I would say

00:10:08.560 --> 00:10:12.240
 is, uh, you know, learn to, you know, stop worrying and learn to love the quantum,

00:10:12.240 --> 00:10:12.960
 right? Uh,

00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:16.580
 uh, you're gonna see really interesting, uh, commercial applications of these

00:10:16.580 --> 00:10:17.200
 things much

00:10:17.200 --> 00:10:22.270
 more before you see the keys getting broken. Um, also, I think that you probably

00:10:22.270 --> 00:10:23.040
 will see

00:10:23.040 --> 00:10:28.560
 keys on the order of 40 to 60 bits, maybe 70 bits get broken. And then like six to

00:10:28.560 --> 00:10:29.200
 nine months later,

00:10:29.200 --> 00:10:33.040
 when the next generation of the computers come out, it, they'll be able to break,

00:10:33.040 --> 00:10:34.560
 uh, actual real

00:10:34.560 --> 00:10:40.130
 photography. And, uh, you know, that's dependent on the 10Xing that we've seen in

00:10:40.130 --> 00:10:41.440
 the last five years,

00:10:41.440 --> 00:10:45.060
 which is what's been happening. You know, we, we're going to go from a thousand to

00:10:45.060 --> 00:10:45.680
 about 10,000

00:10:45.680 --> 00:10:49.580
 qubits by the end of the year. We'll probably be at a hundred thousand qubits,

00:10:49.580 --> 00:10:50.080
 depending on the

00:10:50.080 --> 00:10:55.360
 type of system, uh, by the end of next year. So this stuff is rapidly exploding and

00:10:55.360 --> 00:10:55.680
 it's really

00:10:55.680 --> 00:11:00.200
 hard to describe sort of the exponential growth and, uh, capability of these

00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.160
 systems. So it's, uh,

00:11:02.160 --> 00:11:06.070
 it could just be a very overnight type of thing where you've got a really buggy

00:11:06.070 --> 00:11:07.120
 algorithm. It takes two

00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:12.640
 months to run, but it reliably breaks like say a 38 bit key. And then six months

00:11:12.640 --> 00:11:13.120
 later,

00:11:13.120 --> 00:11:18.400
 they're breaking real keys. Do you think AI comes into play here as that continues

00:11:18.400 --> 00:11:19.520
 to mature and build

00:11:19.520 --> 00:11:23.440
 its own systems and technology? Will AI and quantum have some sort of a

00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:24.720
 relationship over the next

00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:31.140
 several years for specific physics applications? So it's already having like a huge

00:11:31.140 --> 00:11:32.320
 impact. Um,

00:11:32.320 --> 00:11:36.400
 quantum in general, just the approach and the thought process that goes into it,

00:11:36.400 --> 00:11:40.640
 people have realized, wait, this is a really good way to do optimization.

00:11:40.640 --> 00:11:47.120
 Uh, so we've already seen advantages or you're seeing, um, like, uh, I don't want

00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:47.920
 to call it specific

00:11:47.920 --> 00:11:51.560
 logistics companies, but they're definitely using, if not quantum computers,

00:11:51.560 --> 00:11:53.120
 quantum inspired approaches.

00:11:53.120 --> 00:11:55.920
 You're seeing financial institutions that are using these quantum inspired

00:11:55.920 --> 00:11:56.640
 approaches.

00:11:56.640 --> 00:12:01.520
 So it's already having a huge impact and AI is also definitely accelerating. Uh, it's

00:12:01.520 --> 00:12:02.320
 great at pattern

00:12:02.320 --> 00:12:06.320
 matching. So things like that. Yeah, let's just go back to the

00:12:06.320 --> 00:12:19.440
 I think the answer is 10 out of 10. I mean, Bitcoin is going to survive. There's

00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:20.320
 absolutely

00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:23.200
 no question. I mean, you know, I was talking about the difference in Bitcoin that

00:12:23.200 --> 00:12:23.600
 maybe makes it

00:12:23.600 --> 00:12:28.070
 vulnerable versus like a centralized system, but look, Bitcoin is also incredibly

00:12:28.070 --> 00:12:28.480
 resilient,

00:12:28.480 --> 00:12:34.000
 far more than any of these centralized systems. So Bitcoin will certainly survive,

00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:34.240
 you know,

00:12:34.240 --> 00:12:37.040
 but I think, I think it's in all of our interests, everyone in this room, everyone

00:12:37.040 --> 00:12:37.920
 in this conference,

00:12:37.920 --> 00:12:41.790
 you know, to ensure that the transition to the post quantum, the world of post

00:12:41.790 --> 00:12:42.880
 quantum Bitcoin

00:12:42.880 --> 00:12:47.680
 is as orderly as possible. Um, you know, but I think I have every reason to believe

00:12:47.680 --> 00:12:48.240
 that Bitcoin

00:12:48.240 --> 00:12:51.960
 will exist in the future and I have every reason to root for it. I mean, I believe

00:12:51.960 --> 00:12:52.480
 this is like,

00:12:52.480 --> 00:12:56.950
 you know, this is the most incredible financial innovation of the 21st century and

00:12:56.950 --> 00:12:57.440
 probably any

00:12:57.440 --> 00:13:02.800
 century. And I'm certain that it's interesting. I just want to echo what Adam said.

00:13:02.800 --> 00:13:08.880
 Um, uh, if you're an institutional, uh, if you're relying on the NHSM, uh, you

00:13:08.880 --> 00:13:09.440
 really need to be

00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:13.760
 thinking about this problem right now. I think the sort of black swan probability

00:13:13.760 --> 00:13:14.880
 is, you know,

00:13:14.880 --> 00:13:19.550
 less than 1% right now, but certainly going to be past 1% in, you know, the end of

00:13:19.550 --> 00:13:20.480
 2027.

00:13:20.480 --> 00:13:25.960
 I am on record saying that it's five to 20% in 2028. Um, maybe I'm a little

00:13:25.960 --> 00:13:26.720
 aggressive with that,

00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:31.190
 but I still think it's a very real possibility. So if you're trying to do real

00:13:31.190 --> 00:13:32.160
 world assets or trying

00:13:32.160 --> 00:13:35.780
 to put things on chain and you're an institutional and you're an institution, you

00:13:35.780 --> 00:13:36.480
 should really be

00:13:36.480 --> 00:13:40.170
 thinking about what your strategy is, uh, and how you're going to solve it. And I

00:13:40.170 --> 00:13:40.640
 think you should

00:13:40.640 --> 00:13:44.640
 have plan to have that solution in place, uh, sort of by the end of the decade at

00:13:44.640 --> 00:13:45.680
 the minimum, but more

00:13:45.680 --> 00:13:51.040
 likely 2028, 2029. This has been a really encouraging conversation for me and I,

00:13:51.040 --> 00:13:52.080
 you know, learned a lot

00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:57.320
 from you guys. I'm an analyst, right? I'm not a cryptographer and perhaps this bear

00:13:57.320 --> 00:13:58.000
 market is a

00:13:58.000 --> 00:14:02.040
 blessing in disguise because nobody was talking about quantum last year. And I tend

00:14:02.040 --> 00:14:02.640
 to believe

00:14:02.640 --> 00:14:07.120
 that narratives follow price action, right? The quantum topic really picked up when

00:14:07.120 --> 00:14:08.480
 Bitcoin dropped to 60K

00:14:08.480 --> 00:14:12.690
 in February. And this happens every bear market, right? Some narrative comes out

00:14:12.690 --> 00:14:13.840
 and Bitcoin's dead.

00:14:13.840 --> 00:14:19.170
 It's so over this time it was quantum. I liked Gaul's approach where, you know, get

00:14:19.170 --> 00:14:20.240
 ready sooner rather

00:14:20.240 --> 00:14:24.720
 than later. I think that's very prudent. Um, but you know, last summer or last May

00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:25.440
 at this conference,

00:14:25.440 --> 00:14:29.060
 everyone's talking about treasury companies and a perpetual bid going to send

00:14:29.060 --> 00:14:30.080
 Bitcoin to a million.

00:14:30.080 --> 00:14:33.520
 So, you know, a year or two from now, when Bitcoin's back at all time highs, I

00:14:33.520 --> 00:14:34.320
 imagine we won't be

00:14:34.320 --> 00:14:39.350
 talking about quantum. So it's good to have these conversations now. And thank you.

00:14:39.350 --> 00:14:39.920
 I, I agree with

00:14:39.920 --> 00:14:43.760
 that sentiment and I agree as well. The hope of talking to you guys about this,

00:14:43.760 --> 00:14:44.880
 again, I'm not a

00:14:44.880 --> 00:14:48.830
 cryptographer either. So having Adam and things to discuss, obviously there's the

00:14:48.830 --> 00:14:49.680
 quantum mission that

00:14:49.680 --> 00:14:53.330
 we need to get right. There's institutional adoption now coming in, which a lot of

00:14:53.330 --> 00:14:53.920
 Bitcoins have

00:14:53.920 --> 00:14:57.830
 been saying for years, front run the institutions. I think we were right about that,

00:14:57.830 --> 00:14:58.720
 but obviously retail

00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:03.750
 continues to continue to adopt globally, not just in the U S. And so, uh, starting

00:15:03.750 --> 00:15:04.320
 with you, Adam,

00:15:04.320 --> 00:15:10.020
 and then down the line, I'd love to hear, um, how bullish are you on Bitcoin? Not

00:15:10.020 --> 00:15:10.640
 price wise,

00:15:10.640 --> 00:15:15.600
 but just in general, has, has anything changed on your outlook for Bitcoin for the

00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:16.160
 short term

00:15:16.160 --> 00:15:20.630
 and deep into the future with all of the various items that we have to contend with,

00:15:20.630 --> 00:15:21.280
 such as quantum?

00:15:21.280 --> 00:15:25.760
 Well, I mean, uh, general interesting. I agree. I actually think not supporting

00:15:25.760 --> 00:15:26.560
 Bitcoin at this

00:15:26.560 --> 00:15:31.840
 point has become a political risk. Um, and so agreed, uh, with this administration,

00:15:31.840 --> 00:15:32.480
 you expected a

00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:35.860
 little bit more, but maybe it's also sort of part for the course of Bitcoin. It

00:15:35.860 --> 00:15:36.800
 does the opposite of

00:15:36.800 --> 00:15:41.510
 what you expect. Um, but even if we have a change of administration, whichever side

00:15:41.510 --> 00:15:42.160
 of the aisle you

00:15:42.160 --> 00:15:47.040
 lean, I mean, I'm pro human is where I'm at. I think most of us would agree, uh,

00:15:47.040 --> 00:15:48.560
 forget all the other BS,

00:15:48.560 --> 00:15:53.610
 basically. Um, but even if another administration came in with nefarious intent or

00:15:53.610 --> 00:15:54.400
 tried to go against

00:15:54.400 --> 00:15:57.500
 Bitcoin, I actually don't think that they would get the support in the votes at

00:15:57.500 --> 00:15:58.560
 this point. And so

00:15:58.560 --> 00:16:03.430
 I view it as a political risk for them. I think they do now too, hopefully. Um, so

00:16:03.430 --> 00:16:04.400
 I, I totally agree

00:16:04.400 --> 00:16:10.000
 with that. Um, Alex, we'd love to hear your thoughts. Uh, yeah. Um, I'm bullish on

00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:11.200
 quantum in terms of,

00:16:11.200 --> 00:16:15.050
 uh, you know, as, as, as, you know, development is accelerating and also its

00:16:15.050 --> 00:16:17.440
 utility for humanity broadly and

00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:24.240
 potentially even for Bitcoin, I'm bullish on Bitcoin. I don't think one implies the

00:16:24.240 --> 00:16:24.960
 death of

00:16:24.960 --> 00:16:30.220
 the other. Uh, and I'm bullish that we'll all be here in 40 years, at which point

00:16:30.220 --> 00:16:31.040
 there will almost

00:16:31.040 --> 00:16:34.450
 certainly be a quantum computer here talking about Bitcoin and Bitcoin will have

00:16:34.450 --> 00:16:35.680
 survived. So I, yeah,

00:16:35.680 --> 00:16:38.740
 I mean, I, I don't know if there's more to say than that. I think I, I'm very

00:16:38.740 --> 00:16:39.920
 confident that Bitcoin will

00:16:39.920 --> 00:16:44.480
 survive and therefore being early as we are in 2026, it is a great time for Bitcoin

00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:45.440
 and it's a great time for

00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:50.950
 Bitcoin. You're still early. Don't forget that. Great. I can't wait to be able to

00:16:50.950 --> 00:16:51.920
 use a quantum

00:16:51.920 --> 00:16:59.000
 computer to mine some Bitcoin. Uh, with that said, I'm also very hopeful. Uh, I

00:16:59.000 --> 00:16:59.920
 think the L2s are going

00:16:59.920 --> 00:17:03.950
 to lead the way. Uh, they are by far more nimble than, you know, getting anything

00:17:03.950 --> 00:17:05.280
 into Bitcoin core.

00:17:05.280 --> 00:17:08.040
 That's by design, right? So I think that you watch that space. I think there's

00:17:08.040 --> 00:17:08.960
 going to be an interesting

00:17:08.960 --> 00:17:12.870
 developments. People are going to be able to do some experimentation there and

00:17:12.870 --> 00:17:13.600
 hopefully, uh,

00:17:13.600 --> 00:17:18.070
 you know, get these preliminary algorithms is set in stone, tested, right? Things

00:17:18.070 --> 00:17:19.040
 like that. And, um,

00:17:19.040 --> 00:17:25.440
 it's just very helpful. Yeah. So on the last topic, uh, there is, um, shrinks in Climoxidine

00:17:25.440 --> 00:17:27.000
 and Equids using